Date: June 27, 2025
​
​Executive Summary:​
​
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) exhibits a mixed technical picture heading into the week of June 30, 2025. While recent price action has been choppy, several indicators suggest a potential shift in momentum. A decline in volatility alongside mixed technical signals necessitates a cautious approach in the near term.
​
​Technical Analysis:​
​
​Price Action: BTC/USD experienced a minor pullback this week, closing near $107,370. Despite briefly breaching $108,322, the price retreated below the pivot point, suggesting potential bearish pressure. The formation of a bearish harami candlestick pattern further reinforces this concern. However, the price remains above the weekly and monthly resistance 1 levels, indicating underlying bullish strength. The slight discrepancies between CentralCharts ($107,180) and Yahoo Finance ($107,389) price data likely reflect variations in data sources and timing.
​
​Trend Bias & Momentum: The MACD crossing above its moving average offers a bullish signal, potentially hinting at renewed upward momentum. However, this is countered by the price dipping below the pivot point. The Williams %R indicator hovering in overbought territory suggests a potential for short-term consolidation or a minor correction before further upside. Observing the weekly historical prices reveals a pattern of consolidation over the past month, with BTC oscillating between approximately $100,000 and $110,000.
​
​Volatility: Both the DVOL (BTC Volatility Index) and BVOL24H (BTC Historical Volatility Index) have decreased. This reduced volatility, while potentially creating a calmer trading environment, can also signal decreased market participation and potentially precede a significant price movement in either direction.
​
​Volume: The 24-hour volume of $43.93 billion represents a healthy level of trading activity. Analyzing the weekly historical volume indicates relatively consistent trading activity, further reinforcing the current consolidation phase.
​
​Support & Resistance: Key support levels to watch are the previous week's low around $102,372 and the psychological $100,000 mark. Resistance levels lie around the recent high of $108,322 and the 52-week high of $111,970.
​
​Trend Projection:
​​
We anticipate a period of sideways trading to continue into next week, with BTC/USD likely to range between $105,000 and $110,000. A breakout above $110,000 would signal a resumption of the bullish trend, targeting the 52-week high. Conversely, a break below $100,000 would indicate a deeper correction, potentially targeting the $95,000 level.
​
​Sentiment:​
​
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The declining volatility suggests a period of consolidation, which could lead to either a bullish breakout or a bearish correction. Traders should closely monitor price action around key support and resistance levels to identify potential trend confirmations.
​
​Investment Strategy:​
​
Given the current market conditions, we recommend a cautious approach. For long-term investors, holding existing positions is advised. For short-term traders, tight stop-loss orders are crucial to manage risk during this period of uncertainty. Consider scaling into positions on dips towards the $105,000 support level, with profit targets near the $110,000 resistance.
​
​Disclaimer:​
​
This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The information presented herein is based on data believed to be reliable, but Lord Giorgio Capital makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in cryptocurrency involves significant risk, including the potential for total loss of principal. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.